Research and Analysis Support for Pacific El Niño Historical Impact/Preparedness

This assignment will support OCHA Pacific’s preparedness and anticipatory action work in the context of the evolving 2026–27 El Niño.

Previous El Niño events have resulted in significant and varied humanitarian impacts across Pacific Island countries, including drought, water scarcity, food insecurity, health impacts and other climate-related hazards.

The Online Volunteer's support in reviewing historical impacts, vulnerabilities, preparedness measures and early actions will help identify recurring patterns and lessons relevant to current preparedness efforts. The analysis will also support comparison with emerging conditions during the 2026–27 El Niño and help inform monitoring and anticipatory action across the region.

Under the guidance of an appointed OCHA focal point, the Online Volunteer will support OCHA Pacific’s preparedness and analysis work by examining historical El Niño events and their humanitarian impacts across selected Pacific Island countries and comparing these patterns with the evolving 2026–27 El Niño.

Key tasks will include:

• Compile evidence from previous significant El Niño events, including drought, water scarcity, agriculture and food security, health, wildfire and other humanitarian impacts.
• Analyze which countries and population groups were most affected, how impacts evolved over time, and recurring patterns of vulnerability.
• Document government preparedness measures, early action and humanitarian responses during previous events.
• Compare historical patterns with emerging conditions during the 2026–27 El Niño and identify potential preparedness implications.
• Develop country case studies and highlight lessons relevant to anticipatory action and operational readiness.
• Support the identification of indicators or warning signs from historical events that could be monitored during the 2026-27 El Niño to inform preparedness and anticipatory action.
• Participate in regular virtual check-ins with the designated OCHA focal point to discuss progress, emerging findings, research priorities and any challenges in accessing or interpreting information

Deliverables:
• A structured historical El Niño impact and preparedness database/matrix covering 6-8 selected Pacific Island countries and covering 2-3 significant historical El Niño events where sufficient evidence is available. Key elements to capture include humanitarian impacts, affected populations, preparedness and early action measures, humanitarian responses and relevant lessons.
• A source/reference database (40-60 credible sources) documenting the evidence used and enabling verification of key findings. Sources may include government/regional reports, UN and humanitarian reporting, scientific and technical publications and other credible institutional sources.
• 5-7 country or subregional case studies highlighting significant impacts, preparedness measures, early actions and humanitarian responses from the research.
• A concise analytical report (10-15) identifying recurring humanitarian impact patterns, vulnerable population groups, lessons from previous events and implications for preparedness and early action during the 2026–27 El Niño.
• Supporting tables, charts, or other visualizations (6-10 products) summarizing key findings for use in OCHA Pacific preparedness and coordination products.
• A brief set of 8-12 concise key findings and practical recommendations (ideally summarized in 1-2 pages) that can be incorporated into OCHA Office of The Pacific's El Niño monitoring and preparedness products.

The Online Volunteer will be asked to attend an initial virtual briefing followed by fortnightly virtual check ins.

Please note that deliverables and figures are intended as indicative ranges rather than fixed targets, as the final scope will depend to some extent on the availability and quality of historical evidence.